10. Jimmy Rollins - Phi - Age hurts; Rollins has frequented the DL the last few years, but that doesn't mask his waning skills. We knew that age would lessen the steals, but drops in average and power came unexpectedly.
9. Starlin Castro - ChC - Starlin delivered a great rookie season, something Cub fans could take home in 2010. A stellar bat and decent baserunning will keep him atop their order, but Chicago sacrifices defense with Castro; Cub fans were treated to "E6" twenty-seven times last year, and Castro wasn't called up until May 7.
8. Elvis Andrus - Tex - The kid ignited the offense at the start of last season, and then he hit a wall about two months into it, stumbling for the rest of the season. Elvis lost confidence (a phrase never before uttered) once batteries decyphered his stealing habits; he lost his bat and even the leadoff spot for a bit. His defense is terrific, but the team needs a spark atop their offense. Andrus has the skills, but he's still too young to put up a better year than those ahead of him.
7. Rafael Furcal - LAD - Without injuries last year, Furcal was on pace to shatter expectations. But the injuries and the poor play upon his return forced us to remember his age and the prior three seasons. If you told me that Furcal would play 150 games this year, he'd be #4 or higher on the list; he has power, cunning on the basepaths and a great bat.
6. Derek Jeter - NYY - The Captain and the Bombers sailed through precarious waters this off-season. The Yanks, who overpay everyone, decided not to draw the line at Jeter--a good decision. I don't like to talk good about Jeter, but the dude cares. The Cashman ordeal spiked the Captain's competitive juices (yuck), and if he comes out of the gate fast, we'll see something closer to 2009 than 2010. But he'll still be a statue on the left-side of the infield next to his best friend.
5. Stephen Drew - Ari - You're thinking, "Who?" I'll tell you: it's J.D.'s brother! He's in a great park, and his numbers show it. Drew was super-hyped coming up but underrated now. Also, Drew gives plus defense. The Diamondbacks will have him in a different spot in the lineup this year, but he's seasoned enough to handle that just fine.
4. Alexei Ramirez - ChW - When Alexei came on the scene a couple of years ago, I thought, "Who is this guy?" and "He can hold his bat in front of his body, and I can't see him." And then the toothpick had more Grand Slam's than hits that season. He was one-half of the tandem that notched the most Double-Plays (sure, Danks and Buehrle provide a ton of opportunities) last season too. He finished strong, and that will carry on into 2011.
3. Jose Reyes - NYM - Last season, Reyes handled everything his capricious manager threw at him, including hitting from the three-hole with a smile on his face and this team-oriented phrase: "I'll do whatever he thinks will make us better." Reyes' excitement illuminates the game. He's just good for baseball, but he's a Met. On his skills, the ninth-year player will never steal 78 bags again (2007), but he still has speed and power and defense. He missed most of 2009, and like a pitcher, Reyes needed a year to get re-acclimated--because the injury afflicted his top skill. Reyes will be terrific this year, even though I don't want that.
2. Hanley Ramirez - Fla - The guy has been elite for years now, but he plays in front of 500 people at home games. From a constant power progression, his numbers regressed last year offensively, and the defense just wasn't there. As a good friend pointed out to my saying his defense was metrically terrible last year, "He just doesn't care." And I agree, my friends. Hanley missed games last year for disrespecting his manager. I understand no one goes to the games down there, but Miguel Cabrera did just fine. Get drunk or get great, Hanley. Great players desire to win utterly. His OBP and AVG were the worst since his rookie season, and he grounded into the most double-plays of his career. Hanley should've been A-Rod 2.0, and he still has a chance. For all the bad one can say of Alex Rodriguez, all of us know he wants to be great--yeah, in his arrogance, but he still wants it. Hanley doesn't. He's Lebron James, and the diamond-studded pendant sporting his batting-title-winning average is the Heat's theatrical, embarrassingly hubristic "Welcome-To-Miami" coming out party last offseason.
1. Troy Tulowitzki - Col - He's younger and ranks higher defensively than #2. Sure, Tulo has missed a ton of time through his big-league years, but only one of the injuries appeared to linger (hamstring). After a broken wrist that took thirty games from him, Tulo produced numbers that warranted an MVP candidacy. He's only been unlucky in health; the law of averages will sustain him for an amazing season this year.
Reference Points:
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/sortable/index.php?cid=138277
http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=ss&stats=fld&lg=all&qual=y&type=1&season=2010&month=0&season1=2010&ind=0
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